Black Sea Security Risks Reduce Russia's Wheat Exports
· Tarım Pusulası
Russia's wheat export forecast for August has fallen to 1.8 million tons, the lowest level in 14 years, due to increasing security risks and port restrictions in the Black Sea basin.
Black Sea Crisis Dims Export Outlook
Increasing security risks and port restrictions in the Black Sea basin have negatively impacted Russia's foreign trade projections. According to data from the Rusagrotrans Analytical Center, the country's wheat export forecast for August has been revised down to 1.8 million tons. This actual volume is approximately 2.5 times lower compared to the same period last year. This level marks the lowest monthly performance recorded since August 2010. Drone attacks in the Black Sea have been the primary driver of sharp market movements.
Widening Price Gap Between Baltic and Novorossiysk
According to Rusagrotrans data, the export wheat price at the port of Novorossiysk fell by $6 per ton week-on-week to $215. In contrast, the Baltic Sea FOB price increased by $15 per ton during the same period, reaching $255. On international markets, US-origin SRW wheat rose to $283 per ton, while Romanian wheat reached $268. French wheat traded at $259 per ton, a decrease of $1.
Sharp Decline in Regional Grain Shipments
Data from the Russian Grain Union indicates that Russia's wheat exports in July decreased by 17.7% year-on-year to 1.8 million tons. While the volume fell from 2.2 million tons last year, total grain exports declined by 37.6% to 2.026 million tons. According to Vedomosti, disruptions at Ukraine's Odesa ports have led to an 18% decrease in wheat exports, a 28% drop in barley exports, and a 54% reduction in flour shipments since July 1.