Global Wheat Prices Diverge Between US and Europe

November 7, 2026 · Tarım Pusulası

US wheat contracts rose on strong export sales in international grain markets, while wheat traded on European exchanges declined due to the strengthening euro.

Global Market Wheat Prices Diverge

A significant divergence in commodity prices was recorded in international grain markets on Thursday, November 5, 2026. Wheat contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Kansas City, and Minneapolis futures markets in the United States closed the day with gains. In contrast, wheat prices traded on the Paris Euronext MATIF exchange, considered a benchmark for the European market, experienced a decline. On the same trading day, corn and soybean futures contracts showed a downward trend, closing the day with losses.

US Wheat Exports and Stock Expectations

December 2026 soft red winter wheat contracts traded on the CBOT rose by 0.12% to $220.18/ton. Kansas City hard red winter wheat was at $233.59/ton, and Minneapolis hard red spring wheat contracts were at $227.81/ton. According to US Department of Agriculture data, weekly wheat export sales reached 538,028 tons, with the Philippines buying 119,000 tons and South Korea 100,000 tons. The WASDE report, due on November 10, is expected to show an increase in US wheat stocks by 4 million bushels to 744 million bushels, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Russia Continues to Increase Grain Shipments

The benchmark wheat price on a free-on-board basis at Russia's Novorossiysk port reached 9,300 rubles/ton as of November 5. Russia exported approximately 3.1 to 3.2 million tons of grain throughout October, with Egypt being the largest recipient of shipments at 440,000 tons. Market experts anticipate that if weather conditions remain favorable, the country's total grain exports in November could climb to 3.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the upcoming tripartite talks between Russian, Ukrainian, and US delegations in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 are being closely watched for their implications on the future of the grain corridor.

Corn Market Yield and Tender Developments

CBOT December 2026 corn contracts fell by 0.96% to $173.23/ton. US corn export sales for the week ending October 29 were 1.295 million tons, with Mexico being the top buyer at 381,300 tons. According to an analyst survey conducted by Bloomberg, US corn yields are expected to decrease by 0.6 bushels per acre to 180.6 bushels, bringing total production down to 15.98 billion bushels. On the import side, it was reported that the bidding period for Turkey's 295,000-ton corn purchase tender will conclude on November 12.

Decline in Soybean Futures Contracts

On the oilseed front, CBOT January 2026 soybean contracts fell by 1.16% to $436.60/ton. Weekly soybean export sales were 1.456 million tons, with China ordering 873,900 tons and Algeria 132,000 tons. Bloomberg analysts predict that US soybean yields will rise to 53.5 bushels per acre, with production reaching 4.596 billion bushels. While the Chinese government has extended the 100% tariff exemption on Canadian canola meal and peas until the end of 2028, USDA reports indicate that China is expected to import 110 to 115 million tons of soybeans in the new season.

Soybean and Sunflower Balance in Vegetable Oils

In the vegetable oil market, soybean oil experienced a sharp decline, with CBOT December 2026 contracts falling by 2% to 62.24 cents/lb. Soybean oil futures on China's Dalian exchange fell to 8,763 yuan, equivalent to approximately $1,372/ton. In contrast, the sunflower oil index on the Russian National Trade Exchange managed to maintain its strong performance at $1,300.5/ton. In terms of Black Sea supply, Ukraine's rapeseed oil exports to the European Union increased by 45% in the new season to 182.7 thousand tons, accounting for 81.9% of the Union's imports.

Euro Pressure Felt on European Exchanges

In the European market, grains traded on the Paris Euronext MATIF exchange came under competitive pressure due to the strengthening euro against the dollar. December 2026 milling wheat contracts closed the day down 0.11% at $250.41/ton, while the March futures contract was recorded at 222 euros/ton, or $249.28/ton. MATIF March corn futures fell to 246 euros/ton, and June futures traded at 245.25 euros/ton. December sunflower oil futures on the South African SAFEX exchange fell by 1.53% to 10,216 rand/ton.

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