Super El Nino Threatens Global Agricultural Markets
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With a 90% probability according to the US National Weather Service, the anticipated Super El Nino is creating trillions of dollars in cost pressure on agricultural commodity prices and global supply chains.
El Nino Probability Strengthens
According to data shared by the US National Weather Service, the probability of an extremely strong El Nino climate event across the Northern Hemisphere this year has risen above 90%. Meteorologists assess that there is a 69% chance this natural phenomenon will be the most severe El Nino event since official records began in 1950. This anticipated extraordinary atmospheric mobility, triggering drought, extreme temperatures, and crop losses globally, is already being defined as a Super El Nino.
Agricultural Commodities and Global Damage
A comprehensive study by Dartmouth College shows that similar climate events in the 1980s and 1990s caused between $4 to $5 trillion in material damage worldwide. The same research institution predicts that the cumulative cost of El Nino cycles throughout the 21st century could reach up to $84 trillion for the world economy. Morgan Stanley reports emphasize that this massive climate fluctuation will create significant supply pressure on key agricultural commodities, particularly sugar and cocoa.
Energy and Supply Chain Pressure
This expected climate shock is anticipated to pose profound risks to global supply chains, food security, and agricultural irrigation infrastructure in the 2026-2027 period. According to International Monetary Fund data, oil prices remaining approximately 30% higher than the previous year are escalating input costs in agricultural production. Current disruptions in energy corridors and supply shocks stemming from developments in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the approaching extreme weather events, have the potential to directly increase production costs for farmers.