Global Corn Prices Hit Three-Year High
· AA Tarım & Ekonomi
Corn prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reached their highest level in three years, climbing to $5.2425 per bushel, influenced by El Nino-induced drought and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea.
Record Surge in Corn Prices
Agricultural commodity prices are experiencing sharp increases in global markets. The price of corn, traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, reached its highest level in three years at $5.2425 per bushel, driven by the adverse effects of the El Nino weather event and geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war. A similar record high was last recorded on July 31, 2023, at $5.2450. Corn prices, showing an increase of over 11% compared to the end of July, rose more than 17% from December 31, 2025, before stabilizing around the $5.18 band.
Drought and Geopolitical Risks
Concerns over agricultural production data in the United States and the country's increasing corn exports are fueling expectations of a tightening global supply. Lower-than-expected harvests in the U.S. Midwest, adverse weather conditions across Europe, and reciprocal attacks targeting shipping routes by Russia and Ukraine are disrupting grain exports. While weather conditions directly constrain production in the agricultural market, logistical disruptions prevent existing products from reaching the market. High energy and fertilizer costs further complicate the compensation for additional supply shocks in the market.
Yield Losses and Climate
Zafer Ergezen, an expert in futures and commodity markets, stated that the El Nino effect has been felt since June in South America, Southeast Asia, Australia, the U.S., and Europe, offering the following assessment:
"We are also seeing significant effects in West Africa. Looking at this context, there were concerns about a decrease in corn yields, particularly in Brazil, the U.S., and Southeast Asia. We anticipated potential declines in corn production from Brazil and corn yields from the U.S. due to the El Nino effect. These predictions of production and yield decreases have begun to materialize."
Bioenergy Demand and Outlook
Vadeli İşlem ve Emtia Piyasaları Uzmanı (Futures and Commodity Markets Expert) Zafer Ergezen pointed out that the sustained high level of oil prices is increasing industrial demand for corn used in biodiesel production, noting that approximately 60% of the total corn produced globally is utilized in industrial applications. He added:
"The El Nino effect is expected to continue until the beginning of next year, which is almost a certainty. If oil prices remain at these levels, all these factors indicate that we could see upward price movements in corn. Prices will at least continue to remain strong. Unless oil prices retreat significantly or a swift and lasting agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, I do not expect a sharp and deep pullback in corn prices."