Severe El Nino Increases Drought Risk in Rural Areas
· Milliyet Ekonomi
Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Özçelik stated that the most severe El Nino process in the last 150 years has begun, warning that record sea temperatures in the Mediterranean will trigger drought risks in inland areas and flood risks along the coasts.
Most Severe El Nino in a Century
According to analyses by international data providers, the global climate system is undergoing its most severe El Nino process in the last 150 years. Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Özçelik, a faculty member at Istanbul Nişantaşı University's Department of Civil Engineering, stated that ocean temperatures have reached record levels, based on data from the World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Özçelik emphasized that the overheating of ocean waters is directly increasing global atmospheric temperatures, which in turn will directly increase the frequency of meteorological and hydrological disasters.
Critical Temperature Threshold Already Breached
The 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit, a critical threshold in global climate goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, is now under permanent risk. Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Özçelik noted that looking at the last 3-year averages, the 1.5-degree limit has already been surpassed. He stressed that in the next 10 years, temperature increases will go far beyond this level due to the combined effects of global warming and El Nino, making extreme weather events inevitable.
Flooding on Coasts, Drought Inland
The rise in temperatures experienced in the Mediterranean basin during July and August threatens agricultural balances and local climate conditions. Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Özçelik stated that according to satellite data, sea surface temperatures in the Western Mediterranean have increased by up to 7-8 degrees Celsius, explaining that this situation creates conditions for flash floods along the coastline. Özçelik noted that the excessive warming of the seas has a high probability of bringing severe drought effects to inland regions.
Call for Drought Measures in Rural Production
Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Özçelik highlighted that extreme temperatures affect a wide range of areas, from marine ecosystems to agricultural production, and stated that local governments and producers need to prepare in a coordinated manner. While urban areas need to manage flood and infrastructure risks, Özçelik underlined the great importance of implementing water management and early warning plans in rural areas to protect drought-related economic activities and agricultural production.