Turkey's Cotton Imports Expected to Rise to 4.8 Million Bales
· GıdaTarım
According to a USDA report, Turkey's cotton harvest is projected to shrink by 11.5% in the 2026/27 season, with domestic production covering only 40% of demand, pushing import needs to 4.8 million bales.
Annual Decline in Cotton Production
According to the world cotton supply-demand report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on August 12, Turkey's cotton production in the 2026/27 season will see a decline compared to the previous season. USDA data indicates that Turkey's domestic cotton production, which stood at 3.05 million bales in the 2025/26 season, is expected to decrease by 11.5% to 2.7 million bales in the 2026/27 season. With one bale accepted as approximately 218 kilograms, the total harvest in the new season corresponds to about 588,000 tons.
Import Dependency and Consumption
Despite high cost discussions in the textile sector, the industry's demand for cotton is projected to remain stable at 6.8 million bales, or approximately 1.48 million tons. The domestic production's ability to meet consumption will only be at 40%, creating a significant raw material deficit of approximately 4.1 million bales in the market. As a result of this supply gap, Turkey's cotton imports, which were 4.6 million bales in the 2025/26 season, are estimated to increase by 4.3% to 4.8 million bales (approximately 1.05 million tons) in the new season.
Changes in Exports and Stocks
The decline in production and domestic consumption pressure directly impacts Turkey's foreign trade balance. According to USDA tables, cotton exports, which were at 1.05 million bales in the 2025/26 period, are expected to show a sharp decrease of 43% in the 2026/27 season, falling to 600,000 bales. Despite this contraction in exports, ending cotton stocks are calculated to rise from 1.08 million bales to 1.18 million bales, in line with market turnover dynamics.
August Revision and Global Outlook
The USDA revised its 2026/27 production forecast for Turkey upwards by 50,000 bales to 2.7 million bales, compared to the 2.65 million bale estimate in the report published the previous month. Globally, the cotton production forecast was increased by 370,000 bales from July to 117.6 million bales. This upward revision was significantly influenced by production increase expectations in Turkey, Brazil, and Greece, which more than compensated for the downward yield losses experienced in the U.S. market.