China's Soybean Imports Expected to Decline by Four Million Tons

November 7, 2026 · Tarım Pusulası

China, the world's largest soybean buyer, is projected to see a contraction in its foreign purchases in the new marketing season, with the USDA's Beijing office announcing that imports will fall to 110 million tons.

Expectation of Decline in Soybean Imports

A significant contraction is anticipated in the foreign purchases of China, the world's largest soybean buyer, in the new marketing season. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Beijing office, the country's soybean imports for the 2026/27 marketing year will stand at 110 million tons. This figure represents a 4 million-ton decrease compared to the 114 million tons imported in the previous season. This estimate from the office is also 5 million tons below the USDA's official foreign purchase forecast of 115 million tons.

Production and Planted Area Data

The USDA Beijing office report forecasts China's domestic soybean production for the new season at 20.1 million tons. While this figure is an increase from the previous season's 19.93 million tons, it falls short of the USDA's official production estimate of 21 million tons. According to the attaché's data, the soybean planted area is expected to decrease from 10.15 million hectares to 10 million hectares, with an average yield of 2.01 tons per hectare anticipated. Although China ranks as the fourth-largest producer after Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, its current harvest does not meet domestic demand.

Industrial Consumption and Stock Projections

Estimates for the soybean crushing sector also diverge significantly from official internal expectations. According to the Beijing office's data, the volume of soybeans to be processed by the industry will decrease to 106 million tons from 108 million tons in the previous season. In contrast, the USDA's official projection calculates this volume at 111 million tons. The attaché estimates China's domestic consumption at 130 million tons and ending stocks at 48.03 million tons, while the official USDA report places consumption at 136 million tons and stocks at 44.26 million tons.

Canola Market and Global Competition

Meanwhile, a similar cautious approach is evident in the country's canola market projections. China's canola production is expected to rise to 16.2 million tons from 16 million tons in the previous season, aligning with the official USDA forecast. However, the attaché estimates canola imports at 4.1 million tons, falling 900,000 tons below the official forecast of 5 million tons. Canola crushing is projected at 19.86 million tons and consumption at 20.42 million tons, with this contraction expected to increase export competition in the soybean oil and meal trade.

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