Sharp Rise in Food Prices Accelerates Inflation in October

November 4, 2026 · GıdaTarım

Consumer inflation in October exceeded market expectations, rising by 2.58% driven by food price increases, particularly fresh fruits and vegetables.

Sharp Increase in Fresh Fruits and Vegetables

According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, food inflation increased by 3.5% in October compared to the previous month. This acceleration in food prices, which had shown a downward trend in the preceding two months, was primarily driven by a 14.66% monthly increase in the fresh fruit and vegetable group. The direct impact of price movements in the food category on headline inflation was calculated at 0.84 percentage points. Seasonal transitions in agricultural product supply and price changes reflected from farm to market pushed up the food basket.

Headline Inflation Exceeded Expectations

The consumer price index increased by 2.58% in October, exceeding the general market expectation of 2.4%. Compared to the monthly increase of 1.84% recorded in September, the inflation tempo gained significant momentum. With this development, annual inflation, which was at 29.73% in September, reached 29.77% in October. Following the announcement of the data, losses were recorded in the BIST100 and banking indices on the stock market.

Impact of Other Spending Groups on Inflation

With the start of the new season, the clothing and footwear group increased by 12.58% monthly, pushing overall inflation up by 0.82 percentage points. With the end of the fuel price equalization system and continued fuel price hikes, the transportation group saw a 2.02% increase, contributing 0.36 percentage points to the headline figure. In the housing group, where electricity and natural gas tariffs remained fixed, a 2.84% rise occurred due to rent increases, reflecting 0.34 percentage points in inflation.

Core Indicators and Reserve Movements

Core inflation B, excluding unprocessed food and energy, decreased to 28.46% annually from 29% with a monthly increase of 2.0%. Core inflation C, while increasing by 2.07% monthly, fell to 28.28% annually from 28.70%. According to calculations by QNB economists, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's gross reserves decreased by $4.1 billion to $158.1 billion, net reserves fell by $5 billion to $37.9 billion, and net reserves excluding swaps decreased to $24.2 billion.

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