Kazakhstan's Barley Exports to Iran Collapse Due to Logistics
· Tarım Pusulası

Kazakhstan's barley exports to Iran plummeted 35-fold due to a more than threefold increase in logistics costs and Russian competition, while Chinese and Central Asian markets saw an upswing.
Severe Logistics Blow in the Iranian Market
Market balances in Kazakhstan's barley exports are radically shifting. According to data from the Kazakhstan Grain Union, the country's barley shipments to Iran decreased 35-fold, falling from 88,000 tons in September of last year to 2,500 tons in the same month this year. Yevgeniy Karabanov, Chairman of the Analysis Committee of the Kazakhstan Grain Union, reported that this sharp decline was due to intense competition from Russian barley. Karabanov also stated that railway transportation costs, and especially freight rates which have more than tripled, have weakened the competitiveness of Kazakh barley in the region.

Shipments to Asian Markets on the Rise
Despite the loss in the Iranian market, significant increases were recorded in shipments to China and Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan's barley exports to China reached 104,700 tons in September, showing a 1.8-fold growth compared to August and a threefold increase compared to September of last year. According to data from the State Revenue Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, total barley exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union amounted to 176,600 tons in September; this figure increased by 42.5% compared to August, while it decreased by 2.2% compared to last year. Shipments to Uzbekistan from regional markets increased 1.4-fold from 35,700 tons to 49,900 tons, and to Tajikistan, they rose by 6.7% to 19,000 tons.

Feed Demand Boosts Russian Imports
Another notable development in Kazakhstan's grain trade was the surge in barley imports from Russia. According to Russian sources, barley shipments from Russia to Kazakhstan in September increased 1.86-fold compared to August, reaching 65,000 tons. Yevgeniy Karabanov emphasized that this rise in imports is based on the growth of the country's livestock population and the consequent feed needs. Karabanov stated that with the increase in livestock production and processing capacity, a structural transformation will occur in Kazakhstan's grain trade, with domestic consumption and processing increasing while raw barley exports decline.
| Value | Period | Measure |
|---|---|---|
| 88 thousand tonnes | September of last year | Barley shipments to Iran last year in September |
| 2.5 thousand tonnes | September of this year | Barley shipments to Iran this year in September |
| 35 times | Year-on-year change in September | Decrease rate in Iran's exports |
| More than 3 times | September period | Increase rate in freight rates |
| 104.7 thousand tonnes | September | Barley exports to China in September |
| 1.8 times | September | Increase in exports to China compared to August |
| 3 times | September | Increase in exports to China compared to last year's September |
| 176.6 thousand tonnes | September | Total barley exports excluding AEB |
| 42.5% | August-September comparison | Increase in total barley exports compared to August |
| 2.2% | Year-on-year September comparison | Decrease in total barley exports compared to last year |
| 35.7 thousand tonnes | Same period last year | Shipments to Uzbekistan last year |
| 49.9 thousand tonnes | Same period this year | Barley exports to Uzbekistan |
| 1.4 times | Yearly | Increase rate in Uzbekistan exports |
| 6.7% | Yearly | Increase rate in exports to Tajikistan |
| 19 thousand tonnes | September | Exports to Tajikistan in September |
| 65 thousand tonnes | September | Barley imports from Russia |
| 1.86 times | August-September comparison | Increase in imports from Russia compared to August |