Agricultural Commodity Prices Fluctuate Sharply in Global Markets

September 13, 2026 · AA Tarım & Ekonomi

While US inflation data and Fed rate hike expectations pressure global commodity markets, geopolitical developments are pulling down grain prices, and the El Nino effect is pushing sugar to its peak.

Rising tensions in the Middle East and inflation data released in the US have significantly increased selling pressure in global commodity markets. According to data from the US Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually in August. While the core CPI rose 2.4% annually, the Producer Price Index exceeded expectations with a 5.4% annual increase. The rise in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates to 87% in money markets accelerated volatility in agricultural commodity futures.

Weekly declines were recorded in key grains traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. Initiatives for peace between Russia and Ukraine eased wheat supply concerns, pulling down wheat prices by 1.1% per bushel. In the same period, corn prices fell by 0.9%, while soybean prices decreased by 0.8%. Soybean prices, which rose to $13.3525 due to Chinese demand, fell below $13 with profit-taking sales. Rice prices increased by 1.4%.

Among agricultural products traded on the Intercontinental Exchange, sugar stood out with its strong rise. Sugar prices on a per-pound basis increased by 6% weekly, drawing attention. El Nino-related global supply concerns were the primary factor in this sharp increase. Strong domestic consumption demand in the Indian market and expected yield reductions across the European Union were among the key elements directly supporting the upward momentum in sugar prices.

In the coffee and cocoa markets, prices eased due to the impact of supply projections. According to ICE data, coffee prices fell 3.8% weekly, while cotton prices decreased by 0.2% and cocoa prices by 4.4% per ton. Production increase forecasts for Brazil in 2027 pressured the coffee market. Despite a decrease in cocoa production in Ivory Coast, projections of continued global supply surplus accelerated the downward movement in cocoa prices.

The rise in energy prices due to geopolitical crises directly affects agricultural production and logistics costs. While Brent crude in the spot market rose 7.6% weekly, natural gas prices fell 3% with an increase in US stocks. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, oil, which averaged $91 in August, tested $106.2 during the week before pulling back to $101.7 on Friday. High energy costs are increasing farmers' operational expenses.

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