Global Agricultural Commodities Decline on Supply Pressure

November 1, 2026 · AA Tarım & Ekonomi

Russia's Black Sea shipping moves and progress in US harvests led to sharp weekly losses in global grain and industrial agricultural product prices.

Global Commodity Markets Overview

Macroeconomic data and monetary policy decisions were decisive in the past trading week for global commodity markets. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it kept its policy rate unchanged in the range of 3.75-4%, while noting that inflation risks persist. The US economy's 3.4% growth in the third quarter and a 3.6% annual increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index for September maintained interest rate pressure. The trend in bond yields and the strong dollar theme influenced pricing across commodities.

Grain Shipments and Harvest Pressure

Russia's grain export moves and the US harvest process were the main agenda items for agricultural commodities this week. Russia's renewed permission for grain shipments via the Sea of Azov strengthened expectations of increased global supply, pulling down wheat prices. According to Chicago Board of Trade data, prices per bushel fell by 3.5% for wheat, 2.7% for soybeans, and 2% for corn. Rice prices also recorded a 0.5% decrease due to the rapid progress of harvest activities in the US and the rising volume of products entering the market.

Declining Trend in Industrial Agricultural Products

Weather conditions in production regions strengthened the supply side in industrial agricultural products and soft commodity markets. Hot and dry weather conditions in the US accelerated cotton harvests, leading to a 2.9% weekly decline in cotton prices on the Intercontinental Exchange. Coffee prices lost 6.6% as rainfall in Brazil supported new crop development. On the same exchange, sugar fell 4.3% and cocoa prices per ton decreased by 2.5% weekly, as the weakening Brazilian real encouraged producer sales.

Sharp Losses in Precious Metals

Precious metals, which offer no yield, ended the week with sharp declines due to high economic activity and interest rate expectations in the US. Despite a drop in the US 10-year bond yield to 4.93%, sales in technology stocks exerted additional pressure on gold and silver. Gold prices tested a one-year low of $3,870.3 within the week before closing at $3,876. Weekly losses were recorded at 9% for silver, 7.8% for platinum, 6.4% for palladium, and 3% for gold.

Geopolitical Rise in Energy Markets

Geopolitical risks and supply concerns pushed prices up in the energy group, which affects the fundamental input costs of the agricultural sector. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure boosted oil prices; December Brent crude futures rose by 0.5% to $117.6 per barrel. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, natural gas inventories increased by 80 billion cubic feet weekly to 3.724 trillion cubic feet, while natural gas prices gained 11.4% weekly.

Supply and Demand Balance in Industrial Metals

Supply tightness in physical markets and concerns about global economic growth led to opposing price movements in industrial metals. The Yangshan premium, reflecting China's demand for imported copper, rose to $205 per ton, indicating strong physical demand. Zinc prices increased by 2.4% and aluminum prices by 0.7% in the over-the-counter markets, while nickel prices fell 4% and lead prices decreased by 0.1% weekly due to raised production targets in Indonesia.

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