Global Agricultural Commodities See Rice and Cocoa Shine

September 27, 2026 · AA Tarım & Ekonomi

In a week overshadowed by a strong dollar and macroeconomic data, global commodity markets saw volatility driven by agricultural supply concerns, while precious metals experienced sharp declines.

Strong macroeconomic data released in global markets proved decisive for commodity pricing. In the US, the September Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing rose to 57, the services sector index reached 58.7, and the composite index stood at 58.4. This strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve might implement additional interest rate hikes. The US 10-year Treasury yield tested the 5.23% level during the week, closing at 5.17%. The dollar index climbed 0.7% week-on-week, reaching 100.9.

Rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar currency increased the cost of non-yielding precious metals. Despite efforts to recover weekly, the price of gold per ounce could not offset its losses, ending the week around $4,285. On a weekly basis, ounce prices fell by 3% for silver, 2.4% for palladium, 2.1% for gold, and 1.2% for platinum. Investors' search for safe havens was insufficient to limit the selling pressure, despite geopolitical risks originating from the Middle East.

In base metals, inventory movements from China and mine disruptions directly impacted price movements. Copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 15.9% in one week to 47,147 tons. Facility maintenance and the halt of operations at the Escondida mine in Chile triggered supply concerns. In the over-the-counter market, copper gained 1.1%, nickel 1%, and lead 0.9%, while aluminum fell 0.7% and zinc 0.6%.

In the energy group, the price of Brent crude for November delivery closed the week up 0.6% at $104.32 per barrel. While pipeline disruptions in US natural gas supported prices, October natural gas futures recorded an 8% increase. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, natural gas inventories increased by 53 billion cubic feet in the week of September 18, reaching 3.351 trillion cubic feet. The fact that total inventories remained above the five-year average limited the sharp rises in gas prices.

In agricultural commodities, according to Chicago Board of Trade data, the price of rice per hundredweight rose 6%, making it the best-performing product of the week. The forecast that the rainy season in Indonesia will be delayed increased concerns about rice supply. Soybeans per bushel rose 1.3% and corn 0.2%, while wheat, pressured by weak export sales and the dollar, fell 1.4%. The lack of concrete purchase commitments in the trade talks between the US and China limited gains in soybeans.

Soft agricultural commodities traded on the Intercontinental Exchange market saw price movements in different directions. Cotton prices rose 1.8% due to weather conditions in US production regions and demand expectations, while sugar gained 1.6% amid drought concerns in Brazil. Cocoa prices rose 5.2% per ton as rainfall in Ivory Coast remained below seasonal norms. Coffee, influenced by increasing production projections, diverged negatively, losing 0.9% weekly.

In an official report released by the National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab), the country's coffee production estimate for 2026 was announced as 67.6 million bags. This high production projection led to easing in the coffee market. On the other hand, drought conditions in Ivory Coast threatening new crop development pose a risk to global cocoa supply. In global agricultural trade, climate conditions and country harvest forecasts continue to determine agricultural raw material costs.

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