Global Sugar Supply Expected to Face a Deficit of 3.92 Million Tons

November 3, 2026 · Tarım Pusulası

According to projections by Brazilian consultancy Datagro, adverse climate conditions and shrinking cultivation areas will drive global sugar stocks to their lowest level in 12 years in the 2026/27 season.

Historic Decline in Global Sugar Stocks

According to data from Brazilian agricultural consultancy Datagro, a significant deficit of 3.92 million tons is expected in the global sugar market during the 2026/27 season. Datagro President Plínio Nastari announced at a conference in October that global supply would be insufficient, even if consumption growth remains limited. The company's calculations indicate that the decline in global production will reduce the world's stock-to-use ratio to 39%. This projected ratio will mark the lowest level in over 12 years for the markets.

Shrinking Production in Europe and India

El Niño-induced climate anomalies are at the center of this sharp expected contraction in sugar supply. Due to reduced rainfall, sugar production is expected to significantly decrease across India, Europe, and Central America. Additionally, the shrinking cultivation areas for sugar beet on the European continent are also pulling down agricultural yields. With production losses, Europe is anticipated to need to import 3 million tons of sugar in the new marketing year, while production is expected to recover in Thailand and remain stagnant in Australia.

Sharp Decline Expected in China's Imports

On the Chinese side, a key player in global trade balances, import demand is rapidly weakening. According to Datagro projections, China will reduce its external purchases by nearly half to 2.7 million tons in the 2026/27 season. The country, which has significantly increased its domestic sugar production over the past year, is calculated to maintain its harvest level at 13.2 million tons in the new season. This situation is leading to a reshaping of trade route balances, despite the global deficit.

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