Global Food Prices Decline 1.2% in October

November 6, 2026 · Bloomberg HT

The FAO Food Price Index fell 1.2% month-on-month in October, driven by lower prices for cereals, dairy, and meat, while sugar prices surged due to adverse weather conditions.

Monthly Decline in Global Food Prices

According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the FAO Food Price Index recorded a 1.2% decrease in October 2026 compared to the previous month. The global benchmark showed a 5.9% increase on an annual basis. While this easing was observed in international markets, food inflation in Turkey rose by 3.5% month-on-month and 27.73% year-on-year in October. Examining the sub-components of the global index, prices for cereals, dairy products, and meat saw declines, while vegetable oils registered a slight increase; the sugar group stood out with a sharp rise.

Supply-Driven Decline in Cereal Markets

According to FAO data, the Cereal Price Index fell by 4.5% month-on-month in October, while recording a 12.6% increase year-on-year. Wheat prices, which had been on an uninterrupted upward trend for four months, began to decline due to weakening international demand and an improving production outlook in Argentina. Although logistical disruptions at Black Sea ports slowed the price decrease, expectations of easing restrictions played a role in the softening. Harvest pressure in the United States and high yield expectations in South America pulled corn prices down. Favorable production prospects in Australia pressured barley and sorghum prices, while the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.6% due to harvest delays.

Divergent Trends in Vegetable Oil Markets

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index showed a limited monthly increase of 0.3% in October, while rising 17.6% compared to the same period last year. The upward trend in soybean and sunflower oil prices offset the decline in rapeseed oil values. Strong biofuel demand and supply constraints from South America pushed soybean oil to its highest level since late 2022. Sunflower oil prices recovered due to logistical restrictions in the Black Sea region. Expected production declines in Southeast Asia kept palm oil prices high, while reduced biodiesel demand in the European Union market pressured rapeseed oil prices.

Slight Easing in Meat Prices

The FAO Meat Price Index fell by 1.2% month-on-month in October, showing a flat trend with a 0.4% increase year-on-year. Ample supply in the European Union and weak external demand pulled pork prices down. Increased supply from Australia led to a retreat in sheep meat prices from record levels. Beef prices experienced a limited decline, despite surplus supply in Australia, as producers kept animals on pastures due to rainfall. Despite restrictions due to Newcastle disease observed in Brazil's Santa Catarina state on October 18, bilateral trade agreements helped maintain balance in the poultry meat market.

Shifting Balances in Dairy Products Driven by Stocks

The FAO Dairy Price Index decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, recorded at a level 16.9% lower than the same period last year. While butter prices fell 31.1% and cheese prices dropped 29.3% year-on-year, skimmed milk powder prices increased by 45.8%. High stock levels in the European Union and competitive supply from the US significantly pressured butter and cheese prices. Conversely, industrial demand for milk protein products in the US and increased import interest limited the supply of skimmed milk powder, driving prices up.

Sharp Rise Wave in Sugar Prices

Sugar was the product that caused the most significant cost pressure in global markets in October. The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 6.7% month-on-month and 28.9% year-on-year, reaching its highest level since December 2024. Disruptions to sugarcane harvesting in Brazil's Center-South region due to excessive rainfall were decisive in this increase. Irregular monsoon rains in India increasing yield concerns and expected low production forecasts for the 2026/27 season in both the European Union and Thailand markets reinforced the upward pressure on global sugar prices.

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