Global Wheat Prices Drop 12% in One Month
· Tarım Pusulası
Global wheat prices fell to $229 per ton as the International Grains Council raised its harvest forecast and shipments from Black Sea ports gained momentum.
Global Production Estimates Drive Prices Down
Wheat prices traded on United States markets fell to $6.25 per bushel and $229 per ton as of Friday, October 23. This sharp decline of approximately 12% from the previous month's levels of $7.1 per bushel and $260 per ton is noteworthy. According to the International Grains Council's October projection, total production from major exporting countries is expected to reach 396.1 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year. This upward revision in production expectations is directly increasing supply pressure on wheat in global markets.
Black Sea Shipments Gain Traction in the Market
Shipment movements by Russia and Ukraine, the largest exporters, are playing a decisive role in the increase of global wheat supply. According to data shared by Andrey Sizov, Director of SovEcon Analytical Center, Russian wheat exports, which were 2.1 million tons in August, are projected to increase to 2.8 million tons in October. This situation is also reflected in the Russian domestic market, where the price per ton rose by 300 rubles to 9,300 rubles last week, according to National Trade Exchange data. SovEcon data also indicates that Ukraine's exports will rise to 15.6 million tons in the 2026/27 season from the previous marketing year's level of 14 million tons.
Sales Offers Announced on Kazakhstan Exchange
The Eurasian Trade System exchange in Kazakhstan, a significant player in regional trade, has announced domestic market sales conditions and new wheat price offers. According to the announced exchange data, 97,000 tenge per ton, including VAT and delivered at silo, is being asked for Class 3 wheat with 25-26% gluten content, but no transaction has yet occurred at this level. Similarly, for the high-protein wheat group with 29-30% gluten, 118,000 tenge per ton is being asked, yet no trades were recorded last week. All these developments prove that global wheat prices are shaped by supply flows.
| Value | Period | Measure |
|---|---|---|
| 229 dollars/tonne | October 23 | US current wheat exchange price |
| 6.25 dollars/bushel | October 23 | US current wheat bushel price |
| 7.1 dollars/bushel | September | US previous month wheat bushel price |
| 260 dollars/tonne | September | US previous month wheat exchange price |
| 12% | Last month | Wheat exchange price decrease rate |
| 396.1 million tonnes | 2026/27 marketing year | Total production of major exporters |
| 2.8 million tonnes | October | Russia October wheat export forecast |
| 2.1 million tonnes | August | Russia August wheat export |
| 300 rubles | Last week | Russia wheat price per tonne increase |
| 9300 rubles | Last week | Russia domestic market wheat price per tonne |
| 15.6 million tonnes | 2026/27 marketing year | Ukraine forecast wheat export |
| 14 million tonnes | Previous marketing season | Ukraine previous season wheat export |
| 97000 tenge/tonne | Last week | Kazakhstan Class 3 wheat price (25-26% gluten) |
| 118000 tenge/tonne | Last week | Kazakhstan high-protein wheat price (29-30% gluten) |