El Nino Threat Fuels Global Food Price Surge

September 13, 2026 · GıdaTarım

Rising climate risks and the strengthening El Nino weather phenomenon in the Pacific are pressuring global agricultural supply chains, pushing food commodity prices back to record highs.

Global Food Trade and Dependence

Behind the agricultural products reaching tables worldwide lies an extremely complex and interdependent supply network. Between 2000 and 2024, global food and agriculture trade experienced a fivefold increase. While this globalization process shortened consumption distances, it significantly increased countries' vulnerabilities and external dependencies. Geopolitical crises or climate events in one region directly determine supply security and the prices of basic foods like flour, bread, and rice in very distant geographies.

Increase in FAO Food Price Index

According to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the food price index reached 133.3 points in August 2026, its highest level since late 2022. The index saw a 2% increase within a single month. The price rise was not limited to a single commodity but spread across cereals, vegetable oils, meat, and dairy products. The FAO report noted that sugar prices, in particular, jumped 12% in August alone.

El Nino Threat and Production Risks

The World Meteorological Organization announced that the El Nino weather event, triggered by warming waters in the Pacific, has a 100% probability of continuing until February 2027. Scientific studies indicate that global corn yields can decrease by approximately 3% during El Nino periods. Indeed, August rainfall in India was 16% below the long-term average. In a country where approximately half of the agricultural land lacks irrigation infrastructure, corn, soybeans, cotton, and legumes face significant drought risks during their development stages.

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