Black Sea Risks Reshaping Global Wheat Routes
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Geopolitical tensions in Black Sea ports are pressuring wheat exports, causing global supply routes to shift towards alternative producers like Canada and Kazakhstan.
Tensions in the Black Sea Hit Exports
Attacks on Black Sea ports and increasing logistical risks are profoundly shaking the balance of global wheat trade in the 2026/27 season. According to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) August report, Russia's wheat export forecast was reduced by 1.5 million tons to 46 million tons, and Ukraine's forecast was lowered by 1 million tons to 13.5 million tons. Alternative suppliers are stepping in to fill this supply gap in the Black Sea. The USDA increased Canada's export expectation by 1 million tons to 28.5 million tons, and Kazakhstan's export forecast also rose by 1 million tons to 10 million tons.
Import Balances Being Re-established
As global supply routes change, significant revisions are also occurring in the purchasing projections of importing countries. According to USDA data, the UK's imports are expected to increase by 1.1 million tons to 3.6 million tons due to weak production expectations, Pakistan's purchases are projected to rise from 10,000 tons to 1 million tons, and Afghanistan's imports are set to increase by 200,000 tons to 4.8 million tons. In contrast, due to strong local production, Turkey's wheat import forecast was reduced by 500,000 tons to 5 million tons. Similarly, Egypt's imports are expected to decrease by 500,000 tons to 13 million tons, Bangladesh by 700,000 tons to 7 million tons, and Vietnam, with reduced feed demand, by 300,000 tons to 6.2 million tons.
Global Wheat Prices on the Rise
Supply concerns have rapidly driven up wheat prices in global markets since July. The EU wheat price per ton increased by $25 to $262, US wheat rose by $26 to $321, Canadian wheat increased by $20 to $292, Australian wheat gained $13 to $291, and Argentinian wheat climbed $12 to $239. Russian wheat, which saw a $3 per ton decrease to $224 due to new crop pressure, is facing a tax hurdle. In Russia, the wheat export tax for the week of August 19-25 was raised from 326.6 rubles to 721.1 rubles, the corn tax from 105 rubles to 284 rubles, while the barley tax remained at zero.