Prices Diverge Sharply in Global Agricultural Markets

September 21, 2026 · AA Tarım & Ekonomi

The Fed's interest rate hikes and a strengthening dollar are pressuring global commodity markets, while bumper harvests and increased supply in agricultural products are leading to sharp price declines.

The US Federal Reserve's 25 basis point increase in its policy rate to the 3.75-4% range has triggered product-specific movements in global commodity markets. A 1% weekly rise in the dollar index to 100.2 and US 10-year Treasury yields testing 5.04% before closing the week at 5% created general pressure on agricultural and industrial commodities. Despite tightening monetary policy steps, local supply and demand dynamics determined price direction in agricultural products.

Accelerating harvest activities and meteorological developments in production regions strengthened selling pressure in the grain group. According to Chicago Board of Trade data, wheat prices per bushel fell 1.6% weekly, while corn prices dropped 0.6%. The forecast of expected rainfall in US production areas improving winter planting conditions, along with strong harvest outlooks in Australia, Argentina, and Canada, deepened wheat losses. Logistical risks in the Black Sea region were the primary factor limiting the downward price trend.

The soybean market managed to diverge positively from the general downward trend in the grain group, thanks to strong export data. According to US Department of Agriculture data, total soybean export sales for the week ending September 10 reached 1,702,000 tons. Of these sales, 875,300 tons were direct purchases by China. Soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.5%, while the progress of the harvest and high initial yield results from the fields limited the upward momentum in prices.

Increasing physical deliveries and weakening consumption dynamics turned prices downward in the sugar market. A record 91% year-on-year increase in the amount of sugar offered for delivery under forward contracts traded on the London market, rising to 499,350 tons, highlighted the demand stagnation in the physical market. Furthermore, the decline in oil prices reducing global ethanol production appetite led to a 4.4% drop in the pound price of raw sugar traded on the Intercontinental Exchange.

Positive weather forecasts from Brazil, the largest coffee producer, were decisive for prices in the coffee market. Strong rainfall recorded in the country's main production center, the Minas Gerais region, strengthened harvest expectations for the new season's flowering period. The recovery of Arabica coffee stocks tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange from previous lows also eased supply concerns. As a result of these developments, the pound price of coffee on futures markets closed the week with a 3% decline.

Weak demand and increased shipments in industrial agricultural products like cocoa and cotton brought about sharp price declines. An 18% increase in the amount of cocoa reaching ports in the Ivory Coast for the marketing year covering October 1, 2025, to September 13, 2026, eased the supply crisis. With stocks in exchange warehouses hovering near two-year highs, the ton price of cocoa fell 10.6%. Similarly, cotton prices closed the week with a 5.7% loss amid global demand concerns.

In the energy and metals segments of the commodity market, Middle East geopolitics and Chinese industrial data guided pricing. Brent crude lost 2% per barrel with alternative shipping routes and US stock increases, while natural gas prices rose 0.6%. As the decline in oil prices partially eased inflationary pressure, silver gained 2.8% and gold 0.7% on a per-ounce basis. In base metals, copper prices rose 2.5% driven by a 5.2% increase in China's industrial production.

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